Clinton's fate in the hands of Congress
By Tom Carver in Washington:
The fate of WJ Clinton rests in the hands of Congress.
However much he huffs and puffs, no matter how many ringing endorsements he gets from other world leaders, however positive the opinion polls, a legal and political process has now begun which has to run its course.
Between now and the end of September, the House Judiciary Committee will examine the remainder of the documents which Starr dumped on its doorstep, decide what else to release to the public and whether to launch a full impeachment inquiry.
Barring a declaration by Monica Lewinsky that she made up the whole thing, the committee seems certain to vote for an inquiry.
How can Congress launch an impeachment inquiry when two-thirds of Americans don't want Clinton impeached?
Launching an inquiry doesn't mean Clinton will be impeached, but it does allow the Republicans to keep the pot boiling through the mid-term elections on 3 November.
Mid-terms are usually greeted with a giant yawn by voters but Republicans believe this scandal will galvanise their supporters whilst causing demoralised Democrats to stay at home.
The scandal has united the Republican party and provided a focus for their campaign.
The conservative base is fired up with righteous indignation and money is pouring into the campaign war chests.
If the Republican leadership backs down now and halts the process, it would face the wrath of its grassroots.
So will the election determine what happens next?
Yes, to some extent.
If the Republicans score a significant victory (15-20 more seats in the House, 5 more seats in Senate), then they would see it as a mandate to carry out an impeachment investigation.
On the other hand, if the voters return a status quo, then the Republicans will feel chastened and be more willing to do a deal with the White House to close down the whole process.
That is why Henry Hyde, the Judiciary Committee chair, says that the committee will not hold any hearings until after the election – he wants to hear what the voters say.
What kind of deal is the White House looking for?
It wants a "circuit-breaker", some way of wrestling control of the crisis from Congress.
Clinton is open to the idea of being censured. He has sent out feelers to senior Republicans such as Bob Dole and former president George Bush and, rather belatedly, assembled a cabal of wise men to sell any deal to Congress.
Leading the wise men is George Mitchell, the man who brokered a settlement in Northern Ireland. But even the Democrats are warning the White House that it would have to be more than just a slap on the wrist.
There could be a fine or possibly the humiliation of Clinton having to stand before Congress and receive the censure in person. In any event, the Republicans are refusing to bargain until after the election.
Will Clinton be impeached?
Probably not, is my feeling after talking to many people on Capitol Hill over the past fortnight.
The Republicans know there is no public enthusiasm for impeachment. They don't want Clinton to be replaced by Al Gore and they certainly don't want to be blamed by history for dragging this out.
So expect talk of a deal soon after the elections.
